The Weekly Forecast: September 29

By September 29, 2020 No Comments

Welcome to ACRONYM’s Weekly Forecast, where we share our latest findings on which digital ads and narrative message tracks are working at informing and persuading audiences.

Dorothy is our machine-learning powered system that estimates the persuasive potential of an ad on Facebook without the need to run expensive experiments for every creative. For a detailed explanation, check out our first newsletter here.

After the sudden passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, we immediately sought to use DOROTHY to determine the most effective angles regarding the stakes of this new vacancy. Spoiler alert: health care is still Republicans’ biggest weak spot.

Also, given the unprecedented scale of this year’s wildfires in the western United States and the very active hurricane season in the North Atlantic, we sought out to see how effective boosted news around climate change could be at moving voters. Progressives have struggled for decades to make climate a salient voting issue, but we’re happy to report that we may now finally have a strong opportunity to change that.

And now, our Weekly Forecast:

Here are 5 ads that work…

…and 1 ad that doesn’t.

A number of progressive thought leaders and newsletters, including our own, have argued that the most effective way for progressives to argue against Trump’s third SCOTUS nominee is to focus on health care – and now we have more evidence supporting this argument.

DOROTHY estimates that boosted news articles that make clear how a 6-3 conservative SCOTUS would repeal the Affordable Care Act and Roe v. Wade can move opinion away from the president. Given the importance of this issue, our team quickly validated DOROTHY’s estimate by including the same set of articles in a survey experiment, lending us even more confidence in the message’s effectiveness.

We also found that delivering proper messaging about climate change and how the Trump administration is making it worse as communities around the nation reel from the effects of it can be as effective. DOROTHY estimates that one of the best ways to talk about climate change is to discuss how Trump flatly disregards climate science and how his administration is making it easier to pollute our atmosphere.

Finally, we received further evidence that reports of Trump’s vocal disregard for America’s deceased veterans should only be amplified if framed with or by conservative messengers in order to be taken most seriously by audiences that may be more skeptical of his reported comments.

Those are Dorothy’s hot takes for the week – thanks for reading our Weekly Forecast! If you found these insights to be at all helpful or interesting, please feel free to share this email with your colleagues and let them know they can sign up here.

See you next week!

James Barnes

Author James Barnes

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