Welcome to FWIW Virginia, where we analyze digital spending trends on both sides of the aisle in advance of the 2019 Virginia legislative elections. Each week, we look at whose digital spending is up, whose is down, and whose is non-existent across the Commonwealth.
For what it’s worth, some of it might surprise you.
With less than two weeks until Election Day, campaigns are shifting their attention to get out the vote (GOTV) efforts, the crucial final lap of the election when campaigns focus on making sure their base gets to the polls on November 5th. In this week’s edition of FWIW Virginia, we take a look at the traditional and digital tactics campaigns and outside organizations are using to turn out their base.
But first…
2019 by the numbers
Here’s how Facebook spending by Republican and Democratic party committees and candidates in the most competitive districts compare since the primary election.
From October 13-19, Democratic campaigns + party committees outspent Republicans on Facebook by $34,400.
Here are the top ten biggest Facebook spenders in Virginia from October 13-19:
*Everytown for Gun Safety is running Virginia-specific ads from its national page. Because Facebook reports a spending range on individual ads, this number is an approximation of their weekly spend based on the spending range for their individual, Virginia-specific ads.
Days left until the general election: 12
Deep Dive: Get Out The Vote
GOTV is the most crucial stretch of the entire campaign - persuading voters is important, but it doesn’t matter if your own base doesn’t show up on Election Day. This year, Virginia Democrats aren’t leaving anything on the table for GOTV.
On Tuesday, October 22, actor Alec Baldwin rallied volunteers before canvassing himself for Democratic candidate Amanda Pohl (SD-11), who is facing notoriouslyinflammatoryGOP incumbent Sen. Amanda Chase.
Outside organizations like Swing Left are bringing even more capacity to GOTV operations by organizing bus trips to connect Democrats in DC with campaigns in Virginia for the final weekend of GOTV. (Sign up here!)
GOTV is traditionally done through methods like canvassing, phone-banking, and mail, all of which are important and effective tools for turning out Democrats. But campaigns and outside organizations are also now investing in digital GOTV ads to meet more voters where they spend their time: online.
New Virginia Majority is running paid ads to boost their campaign on a platform called Cheerty, where voters can upload their photo to their page as a public commitment to vote. The platform is attempting to create positive social pressure if participants share the photo on their own social media. Almost 2,000 Virginians have uploaded photos as of October 24.
The Virginia House Democratic Caucus is also up with its own GOTV ads, encouraging Democrats to request and return their absentee ballots. The caucus is also promoting its Election Day Facebook event, which they can use to digitally organize Democratic voters. The event details are then used to feature a polling place lookup and a volunteer lead form, and voters can share the event with their friends to nudge them to vote as well.
With ample spending from Democratic party committees and outside organizations, where are Republicans? From what we’ve seen, Republican candidates are being hung out to dry, with little digital backup from their party committees or outside organizations. While some are running large digital campaigns that are mainly still focused on persuasion, we haven’t found many digital ads from Republican candidates pushing voters to turn out on November 5th.
