Welcome to FWIW Virginia, where we analyze digital spending trends on both sides of the aisle in advance of the 2019 Virginia legislative elections. Each week, we look at whose digital spending is up, whose is down, and whose is non-existent across the Commonwealth.
For what it’s worth, some of it might surprise you.
The primary election is over but not without some close calls and unseated incumbents along the way. The lines have been drawn for the general election, so who is coming out of the gate strong? And who ran the most expensive paid digital program ahead of the primary?
We take a look in this week’s edition of FWIW Virginia.
But first…
2019 by the numbers
We’re tracking digital investment by party committees, statehouse leadership, and candidates in some of the most competitive state house and senate races in Virginia in advance of the 2019 state legislative elections. Here is how investment by Republicans and Democrats compare since the 2018 midterm elections.
Here are the top Facebook spenders in Virginia from June 4 to the day before the primary election.
Days until the general election: 145
Deep Dive: About Last Tuesday..
The voters have spoken, but the turnout was less than stellar. Republicans showed up in greater numbers than Democrats in the key primaries where both parties had a contest like Virginia’s 7th Senate District, which means when the dust settles, either party could wind up in control of the General Assembly come November.
Digital spending escalated dramatically in the final weeks of the campaign. Here are the General Assembly campaigns that spent the most on Facebook and Instagram advertising to date (May 2018 - June 10, 2019)
Campaigns that won their primary are marked with an asterisk (*). Spending from the Realtors of Virginia PAC was included in Dick Saslaw’s total – the Realtors spent $7,838 running ads from the senate minority leader’s Facebook page, while his campaign invested $18,252 on the platform.
After a grueling primary, Paul Milde beat out incumbent Bob Thomas for the Republican nomination in House District 28. Milde ran scores of Facebook ads in the final week of the campaign dunking on Bob Thomas for his “liberal record” and “leftist special interests.”
Thomas, on the other hand, took the high road and did not run any digital ads attacking Paul Milde. In fact, he ran four versions of an ad with a Google Voice phone number (yes we did call it), offering to explain his positions to voters who have questions about Milde’s smears.
One of the biggest upsets of the night happened in Virginia’s 16th senate district where former delegate and convicted criminal Joe Morrisey unseated incumbent state senator Rosalyn Dance. Morrissey spent $3,250 on Facebook ads compared to Dance’s $5,293. In his ads, Morrisey constantly complains about attacks from Dance – one video includes him holding up what he says is one of her campaign mailers, which he disputes.
However, Dance’s Facebook ads never mention her opponent. In the final week of the campaign, she spent $3,262 on GOTV ads that mention issues like health care and her commitment to helping working families.
But how campaigns talk to primary voters is different than how they win over swing voters in a general election, and some campaigns are already gearing up for a tough general election fight.
Campaigns that were forced to spend heavily to win a contested primary will have to quickly replenish their war chest, consolidate their party’s base around their candidacy, and capitalize on the momentum from winning a primary to raise money. For example, Ghazala Hashmi, fresh off her victory in the three-way primary for the Democratic nomination in Senate District 10, is already running a series of digital fundraising ads.
Meanwhile, incumbent Republicans in both the House and the Senate who did not have to fend off a primary challenge are already running persuasion ads on Facebook focused on issues that are less partisan in nature.
Going forward, we’re going to be laser-focused on how campaigns leverage online platforms to win the general election. We’ll be looking at how coordinated their messages are, how many of their ads are fundraising/list-building versus persuasion, which party is outspending the other, and which candidates each party’s campaign committees are spending money to prop up. So stay tuned, follow us on Twitter and tell your friends to subscribe!
